Trump will win in 2020


Predicting USA elections is easy because there is a 50 % chance to guess correctly. Predicting Italian elections on the other hand would be a bit harder.

In 2016 I predicted that Trump will win because of the quantity of his interactions with the customers. One of the reasons Michael Bloomberg is trying to outspend him now is exactly to attack this particular strength of Trump.

For 2020 I predict that Trump will win again because his competitors did not offer any alternative values to voters or to non-voters. Trump’s competitors focused mostly on Trump personally trying to make him look bad without really understanding why people voted for him in the first place. In any competitions in which many customers have multiple options, attacking a competitor without offering an alternative to customers fails as a strategy.

Trump’s voters had enough of the “establishment” and they wanted to give power to someone who is hated and featured by the “establishment”. They are acting up on decades of frustration for not being listened to. Trump’s competitors were not able to offer a better option to them or to non-voters, and therefore will loose.

Not understanding customers is the biggest strategic mistake. Trump is not particularly talented in understanding his voters. The problem is that Trump’s competitors have almost no interest or ability to understand Trump’s voters or non-voters, which gives Trump an easy victory.

I have a 50 % chance to get the bragging rights for guessing this right. Now we have to wait.

Written by: Nikola Tosic
Publishing date: 15 Jan 2020